It’s almost impossible to know if one’s personal, financial, business or career success is due to luck or skill. But one true aspect to be aware is it takes many years for skills to win over luck.
Big trends rarely have one cause. In some endeavors like selling books and movies, luck plays a larger role. There is a paradox of skill. As skill improves, performance becomes more consistent, and therefore luck becomes more important. As individuals advance in their careers, their duties often slide toward the luck side. The tools that made an executive very successful as the head of operations may be of little use when he is promoted to CEO, a position in which it’s much more difficult to find causes for specific effects. When luck stands between cause and effect, giving and receiving quality feedback becomes much more difficult.